$40M governor's campaign possible
HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race will likely be one of the most expensive in the country next year, and spending by the four major candidates could set a state record of $40 million, political insiders said Wednesday.
The price tag, however, is unlikely to set a national record. Millionaire businessman Jon Corzine invested nearly $60 million of his own money in winning a Senate seat in New Jersey in 2000 and the four major candidates for the California governorship in 2002 raised $40 million even before the end of 2001.
But campaign officials and consultants agree that the Pennsylvania campaign will likely cost more than the $36 million state record set in 1994 — the last previous gubernatorial election in which no incumbent was running — and most of the races in the other 35 states that will elect governors next year.
"One of the 10 most expensive races in the country," predicted Neil Oxman, a political consultant who is working for the campaign of Edward G. Rendell. The former Philadelphia mayor is competing with state Auditor General Robert P. Casey Jr. for the Democratic nomination.
No incumbent is running next year. Former Gov. Tom Ridge, a Republican, stepped down in October to direct the national Office of Homeland Security, and his successor, Mark S. Schweiker, is not interested in becoming a candidate. The major candidates will need to rely heavily on paid advertising to boost their name recognition and get their messages out.
Even though most of them haven't officially declared their candidacy, the four leading contenders have raised more than $15 million. A precise figure will not be available until campaign finance reports listing contributions and expenditures through the end of this year are filed Jan. 31.
Last August, the Democratic candidates reported raising more than $11 million between them — $7 million by Rendell and $4.2 million by Casey — though neither side would disclose how much more it expects to take in before the end of the year. Campaign officials said it is reasonable to expect that the two men will spend as much as $21 million in the battle for the Democratic nomination next spring.
On the Republican side, state Attorney General Mike Fisher expects to have raised $2.8 million and state Treasurer Barbara Hafer $1.7 million by the year's end, campaign spokesmen said. The officials said the GOP primary campaign would likely cost between $6 million and $7 million.
In the May 21 primaries, "there's going to be a spending war on one side and a competitive race on the other side," said Fisher's campaign spokesman, Kent Gates.
The officials agreed that spending by the Democratic and Republican nominees in the general election could easily exceed $15 million, although some said unknowns, like the volatile price of TV time and the surprises that are inevitable in political campaigns, make such predictions tricky business.
"Everyone believes the general election will be intense and competitive," said Matt Casey, the auditor general's brother and campaign spokesman.
"Who's to say?" asked Hafer campaign spokesman Timothy Ireland. "There's a lot of licking your finger and sticking it up in the wind here. It's going to cost what it's going to cost."
