WASHINGTON -- Thanksgiving Day this year brought some very positive feedback at our dinner table about the future of America's foreign policy. With Condoleezza Rice nominated as secretary of state, there is acute confidence that if we liked what President George Bush did in his first term, we will love the second.
By now, we have been deluged with facts about Dr. Rice, and we know that before becoming national security adviser she was an expert on Russia. While we have these facts, admirable as they are, we have not yet heard very much from the lady's enemies.
Former CIA boss George Tenet and some of his senior staff always have been negative toward Condi Rice because she not only tolerated, but encouraged informal channels of communication. Even worse, she shared information with the Pentagon and the vice president's office and stimulated out-of-the-box thinking.
We can be sure that these old agency hands will be ready to continue with their sniping.
That said, this Thanksgiving, both Russia and China produced "gifts" for Washington.
Subs & missiles
China initially apologized for one of its nuclear submarines misbehaving in Japanese waters, then denied its apology. No big deal. But the incident notched up the worsening Beijing-Tokyo relationships, which, with Taiwan and Chinese intransigence in the United Nations, will very quickly demand a lot of attention from our new secretary of state.
President Vladimir Putin gift was even more direct. He announced plans to deploy new nuclear missiles with a range of 6,000 miles. These weapons, according to Putin, are unique and designed to counter future U.S.missile-defense systems. According to military experts, these weapons might be hypersonic cruise missiles with maneuverable ballistic missile warheads.
Putin, as usual, chose the timing of his implicit threat with skill. It preceded his visit to Chile and Brazil, thereby boosting Russian technology and trade, and leading to the signing of scores of trade agreements. However, in his visits with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, Putin was able to establish a longterm Russian footprint in Latin America, which, coupled with increased trade, will expand Moscow's influence throughout the region.
Preoccupied with nuclear rogue states such as North Korea and Iran and fully engrossed by the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and against terrorism, our neighbors in Latin America have, by Ronald Reagan's standards, "wandered off the reservation."
Communists resurgent
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, El Salvador, Uruguay and Venezuela all have socialist regimes. In each of these countries, old-time communist parties are flourishing. During the era of Bill Clinton, nothing was done to counterattack -- most certainly not in Colin Powell's State Department-- which remained a hive of Clintonistas.
Colin Powell was, and is, an honorable soldier. He believed what he was told and promoted the men and women with excellent records in the diplomatic corps. After eight years with Bill Clinton, not one of these chosen friends had a less-than-wonderful record. Certainly, not one that the general ever saw.
So socialism flourished and the Russians are now welcomed in our own back yard.
That could be the start of the Putin plan for 2005. Some well-informed strategists believe that Russia's president is attempting to put together a new, powerful coalition of superpowers. This coalition will exist to challenge the superpower of the United States, which is feared and has never been understood by most of the world.
The anchor members would be Russia, Brazil and India. Why India?
The answer lies with India's jealousy towards Pakistan, our ally in the region that has just received a multimillion-dollar windfall of weapons from Washington, India's long-established relationships, with Russia's military and weapons suppliers and, above all, India's needs for Russian oil and gas.
'Crypto-communists'
Other smaller Latin American states and Cuba would join. While much of Europe would be inconsequential to Putin's coalition, France has become a crypto-communist state, adopting communist policies as long as they can be concealed.
Then there is Germany with its renamed communist party winning electoral success and near total dependency on Russia -- paying its loans to keep Germany from international bankruptcy.
Brazil and India are in the process of seeking permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council. Such a coalition would have a large amount of the world's natural resources, a huge pool of technical and scientific talent and international influence.
Will this happen⢠Possibly. The population of the world is exploding, resources are limited and problems of war and peace proliferate. China remains an unknown factor to many, while the resources of Africa are increasingly locked down by tribal violence.
As dinner was ending, we raised our glasses to the new team leader, Condoleezza Rice, who will create and manage the president's foreign policy. We wished her the very best of luck and promised her the wit and wisdom of our table.
Dateline D.C. is written by a Washington-based British journalist and political observer. Additional Information:
