Exodus of young may be slowing

While the U.S. Census Bureau reports a considerable decline of young people in the Pittsburgh region from 1990 to 2000, some local leaders and population analysts say the decades-old trend may be reversing.

A turnaround is being fueled by a new high-tech economy with a range of employment opportunities, a competitive cost of living, affordable housing, accessible health care, a low crime rate and other quality-of-life factors, observers said.

'Our estimate of the net rate of out-migration of 20-year-olds is a fraction of what it was in the 1980s,' said Chris Briem, an economist at the Center for Social and Urban Research at the University of Pittsburgh.

When too many young people abandon a region, without an offsetting number coming to it, the consequences can include a loss of economic vitality, experts said.

Briem said the net difference between people moving to the Pittsburgh region and leaving it has remained flat for all age groups for about four years, probably because of a strong economy.

Other analysts warn, though, that more consideration must be given to the 'brain drain' - a colloquial reference to more high school and college graduates leaving an area than moving in - or the region will suffer.

'If we don't continually work on this issue, there may even be a larger exodus in the future,' said Kristen Szymkowiak, 33, executive director of the Pittsburgh Urban Magnet Project. PUMP is an advocacy group led by young professionals.

On Tuesday, the United Jewish Federation will initiate Shalom Pittsburgh, a project that seeks to attract and keep young people in the region. It is funded with seed money from the Jewish Healthcare Foundation.

The theme of the 6 p.m. kickoff event at the Senator John Heinz Pittsburgh Regional History Center in the Strip District is 'Visit the Past, Launch the Future.' The program was developed to showcase Pittsburgh for young people deciding where to make their homes, organizers said.

BRAIN GAIN PROGRAM

Plugging the brain drain is a statewide concern.

In February, Gov. Tom Ridge unveiled a program called Brain Gain - a $10 million marketing effort that links young people with potential employers and funds local promotion programs.

'If you don't reverse the trend, what you are left with is an increasingly aging population, and your economic engine stalls,' said Steve Aaron, a spokesman for Ridge.

U.S. Census Bureau counted 568,410 residents 15 to 34 years old in Allegheny and the five surrounding counties last year. That figure was down 17.5 percent from 1990, when the metropolitan Pittsburgh area showed 689,257 residents in the same age bracket. The loss over the decade was 120,847 - more than enough young people to fill all the seats at PNC Park and Heinz Field.

Previous findings document that the out-migration of young people started before the 1990s.

About 198,000 people between 15 and 19 were living in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area in 1980, census data show. By 1990, after that group had aged 10 years, there were 155,000 residents in the 25-29 age bracket - a 22 percent decline.

A loss of 170,000 manufacturing jobs in the steel industry during the 1980s accounted for much of the drain, analysts say. During that period, Briem said, the region lost 50,000 to 60,000 residents a year - one of the largest peacetime migrations in U.S. history.

The 2000 census figures seem less alarming. Although the 25-34 age bracket declined 23.9 percent from 1990, the 15-24 category slipped just 9.8 percent. The number of children ages 5 to 14 increased by 3.6 percent.

POSSIBLE TURNAROUND

David Kalson, a lawyer who is chairman of Shalom Pittsburgh, said he believes the trend of young people pouring out of the region is on the verge of turning around.

'It's based on what I'm seeing around me,' said Kalson, 44, of Squirrel Hill. 'The companies that I work with are growing and providing employment opportunities for people in their 20s and 30s. ... I didn't see that five years ago.'

Other local officials also expressed optimism.

'In this area, I don't think we are seeing the brain drain. I think we are doing a much better job at turning that curve upwards,' said Barbara McNees, 54, president of the Greater Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce. 'By the time the census numbers come out, they are a little bit behind what's going on.'

McNees said the region should strive to inform the 135,000 college and university students in the area of job opportunities. She said the chamber has several programs working toward that goal.

Allegheny County Executive Jim Roddey said a careful examination of census figures shows fewer young people left the region toward the end of the past decade.

'We probably picked up numbers in 1999 and 2000,' said Roddey, 68.

The county lost 9.6 percent of its population between the 1980 and 1990 censuses but dropped only 4.5 percent from 1990 to 2000, Roddey said. Based on his analysis, net population became flat or even started increasing toward the end of the 1990s. That change would be reflected in the younger age groups as well as the overall population, he said.

While Roddey believes more young people are staying and moving into the area, he said more must be done to increase job opportunities for college graduates.

'Depending on how long this downturn in the economy lasts, we could have problems again,' he said. 'But if we get out of it relatively soon, we ought to be able to build on our momentum.'

STILL NOT IDEAL

Michelle Cragle of Swissvale moved to the region because she wanted to experience city life. A 1998 graduate of Penn State, the Wilkes-Barre native has been public relations coordinator for the Pittsburgh Symphony for about two years.

'I was interested in either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia,' Cragle said. 'I wanted to move to a larger, more metropolitan area because there are more entertainment options, cultural activities and a more diverse population.'

Although she likes the friendliness and the flavor of Pittsburgh's neighborhoods, Cragle said she doubts whether she will be living here when the 2010 census is taken. The region's demographics and amenities are not ideal for a single young person, she said.

'There aren't enough young professionals,' she said. 'I feel more among my peers when I have been in other cities. In Pittsburgh, I feel old, and I'm only 25.'

Cragle hopes the area can attract more young professionals and improve amenities for young people, giving her reason to stay.

'You can only go to Kennywood so many times,' she said.

John Esper, a native of Oakland, chose to remain there after he earned his master's degree in computer engineering in May from Carnegie Mellon University. He is now an engineer for Spinnaker Networks, a computer hardware and software company.

'My family is here, so I wanted to be close to home. ... There already are startups in the technology field in town, and I think it's going to grow,' said Esper, 22. 'I think five years ago it probably wasn't like this. You'd probably have to leave to find a computer engineering position.'

Marvin Roth, 52, Pitt's director of placement and career services, said more than half of the university's graduates typically remain in the region.

'I don't see students scurrying somewhere else necessarily for the sake of wanting to do that,' he said. 'It really does reflect largely on the opportunities available to them at a given time.'

Briem said it's a myth that most people leaving the area land in Florida, California or Texas. Instead, more than half wind up in other parts of Pennsylvania, in adjacent states or in the Washington, D.C., area.

Judi Mancuso, 42, associate director of the Career Center at Carnegie Mellon University, said she sees more young professionals staying in the Pittsburgh area, although most CMU grads do leave.

'We're much further ahead than we were,' she said. 'I think we (the region) have, to some level, a much larger population of young professionals, but we're not where we want to be.'

John Michalenko, 42, dean of students and career services at Robert Morris College, said that 87 percent of the college's 2000 graduates stayed in the region - a higher number than a decade ago.

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, more graduates were looking for opportunities outside southwestern Pennsylvania because of a weak job market, he said. But as the economy improved throughout the 1990s, more graduating students remained here.

Michalenko said the trend could reverse if the economy weakens and job opportunities become scarce.

David Brown can be reached at dbrown@tribweb.com or (412) 380-5614.