When the highlight in your history of drafting shortstops in the first round is Dale Berra, that could serve as a reason for the Pirates to pick a pitcher in today's draft.

Then again, when your development of first-round pitchers produces talk of Tommy John — surgery, not sustained success — perhaps it's best the Pirates flip a coin when making the second overall selection.

Of course, we also know how "Bottom Line" Bob Nutting throws around coins like manhole covers. But the Pirates should do what's best for their future and take shortstop Manny Machado of Miami's Brito School.

Machado has drawn comparisons to Alex Rodriguez, with some scouts calling him A-Rod Lite. At this point, I'll take A-Rod with lime. The only time we see a Pirates shortstop with some pop in his bat at PNC Park is outside the Home Plate Entrance, where Honus Wagner is immortalized in bronze.

General manager Neal Huntington said Sunday on his weekly radio show that the Pirates are down to picking from among Machado, high school pitcher Jameson Taillon and a "college arm." The highest-rated college pitchers are left-handers Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz, though Daniel Moskos is proof that ratings don't mean much to the cash-conscious Buccos.

This is viewed as a three-player draft, and 17-year-old catcher Bryce Harper is widely expected to go first overall to the Washington Nationals. That leaves Machado and Taillon as the conventional choices.

The Pirates haven't selected a shortstop in the first round since 1995, when they took Chad Hermansen. They should break from that tradition by picking the 6-foot-2, 180-pound Machado, whom Huntington described as an "offensive shortstop" with "a chance for power."

The only question is whether he'll outgrow the position.

"With Machado, the big question is, do you believe he can stay at shortstop?" said Keith Law, lead baseball analyst at ESPN's Scouts Inc. "He can get A-Rod big, but that doesn't mean he's going to hit like A-Rod. He has a tremendous arm, great bat speed, a ticket for power. And he does a lot of things very easily. Those guys turn out to be stars more often than not."

Law would take Machado over Taillon, a 6-6, 230-pound right-hander from The Woodlands (Texas) who projects as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

"Industry consensus is that Taillon is special," Law said. "You don't see many teenagers with a 93-98 mph fastball and a wipeout slider. It's fairly impressive. I haven't seen a lot of high school arms like that. He needs to develop, which for a pitcher entails more risk."

And Huntington admits the track record of high school pitchers is "not a good one." When the Pirates are involved, pitchers are more likely to meet orthopedic surgeon James Andrews before they make their major-league debut. Remember Bobby Bradley and Sean Burnett?

But even their first-round picks of college pitchers haven't delivered. As MLB.com columnist Peter Gammons pointed out, six times between 2000 and '08, the Pirates took a "low-ceiling, easy-to-sign pitcher" in the first round. Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington were busts. Paul Maholm is 42-48. Brad Lincoln and Moskos are still in the minors.

The Pirates have a chance to build a first-round infield with Neil Walker (2004) at second, Pedro Alvarez ('08) at third, Tony Sanchez ('09) at catcher and Machado at shortstop. They have a chance to add a middle-of-the-order bat at a position that is in short supply of prospects in their system.

This is a pivotal pick for the Pirates, and it's no time to go on the cheap.

Machado is being advised by Scott Boras, who commanded a club-best $6 million bonus for Alvarez. But Taillon's advisers, Randal and Alan Hendricks, had pitcher Aaron Crow re-enter the draft a year after being picked ninth in the first round by the Washington Nationals in '08.

"Taillon's advisors are no picnic, either," Law said. "It's not like you're avoiding Boras to go deal with Johnny Cupcake."

Taking that "college arm" would be a copout.

It's time for "Bottom Line" Bob to write a check.

This one should have Manny Machado's name on it.

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