New computer models suggest a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the fault beneath Los Angeles could kill 18,000 people and cost a quarter trillion dollars.
The computer models also projected up 268,000 injuries and as many as 735,000 families forced from their homes, the Los Angeles Times reported Thursday.
The projections are based on two models. One was developed at the Southern California Earthquake Center that estimates the shaking associated with quakes of various sizes and the second was by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to translate the violence into economic and human damage.
"It's one of the worst disaster scenarios you could imagine for the United States," said geologist Edward Field of the earthquake center. "It would be on a par with Kobe."
The 1995 quake in Kobe, Japan, killed 6,400 people and caused $100 billion in damage.
Meanwhile, researchers tried to allay panic.
"It's important to note this is a very rare event," said Edward Field, the study's lead author. "For the citizens of L.A., your odds of dying in an auto accident or of heart attack are much greater."
© Copyright 2005 by United Press International
