Pennsylvanians can expect higher taxes, less representation in Congress and a stagnant economy -- in 2030 -- unless the state can boost its population growth, which is projected to lag far behind the national average. Pennsylvania will only see a 4 percent increase in its population, from 12.3 million to 12.8 million, by 2030, significantly less than the 29.2 percent growth expected for the entire country, according to the latest U.S. Census estimates. Only five states and Washington, D.C., have slower projected growth rates. Difficulties attracting immigrants and businesses, an older population and the outflow of college graduates are to blame for the state's low growth projections, experts said. "We're old so more people die and, let's face it, it's cold here, and people want to leave," said Herbert L. Smith, director of the University of Pennsylvania's Population Studies Center. "Our metropolitan areas are just not as attractive to overseas immigrants." Despite its slow growth, Pennsylvania is projected to still be the sixth-most populated state, but Sunbelt states such as Arizona -- which is expected to jump from 20th to 10th -- will rival the Keystone state, gaining the congressional seats that Pennsylvania is expected to lose. "We'll have less political influence," Smith said. "Our congressional delegation sinks, so our influence at the federal level declines." Pennsylvania holds 19 of 435 U.S. House seats, down from 23 in 1980. It lost two seats in the reapportionments that followed each of the last two Census reports, in 1990 and 2000, due to its lagging population growth. Taxes also are projected to increase because fewer people will be paying for fixed infrastructure and service costs, such as police and firefighters, said Court Gould, director of Sustainable Pittsburgh, an organization that promotes economic growth in the region. "Our roads and water and sewer lines were built for a larger population," Gould said, adding that, in Pittsburgh, the population is declining. "Just because our population is shrinking doesn't mean our costs are as well." With little or no population growth to boost Pennsylvania's work force, the state's economy is likely to suffer as businesses look elsewhere for capable, ready and diverse workers, Gould said. Pennsylvania can change the Census forecast to see higher population growth and, in turn, a better economic future, he said. "Of course the labor market is going to be foremost" in what investors look for, Gould said. "But a clean, healthy environment, public transportation, available venture capital, our world-class universities, our extremely affordable housing market, our authenticity and uniqueness -- these are things that are becoming more and more desirable to investors." If the past is any indication, Pennsylvania's low population growth will stick around, said University of Pennsylvania law professor Nathaniel Persily. "This is not a new trend. Pennsylvania has been growing more slowly than much of the country for some time now," Persily said. According to Census data, Pennsylvania's population grew by about 3.4 percent from 1990 to 2000. The projections for 2030 were made using birth, death and migration rates, said Census Bureau spokesman Robert Bernstein. Extrapolating from those rates, the study predicted that by 2030 the United States will add about 82,163,000 residents, to reach a population of about 363,584,000. The District of Columbia, North Dakota and West Virginia are expected to lose residents. The fastest-growing states are expected to be Nevada and Arizona, whose populations are projected to more than double in size by 2030. "That's really spectacular," Bernstein said. "I guess it shows the impact of air conditioning."

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