There's no way to calculate mathematically how much a year or more of unfavorable publicity has impacted superstar Tom Cruise.
All we can say for sure is that "Mission: Impossible III" has a big opening weekend that will also go down as ... a big disappointment.
The picture cost an estimated $150 million, not counting prints and advertising.
Industry forecasters were expecting it to gross between $63 million-$74 million in its first three days in North America.
It was the No. 1 movie by a wide margin locally and nationally but came in significantly below forecasts -- this despite the fact it was booked into a near-record 4,054 moviehouses, many of which had three to six prints.
The first "Mission: Impossible" (1996) drew $45.4 million in the Friday-to-Sunday portion of its first week, and "Mission: Impossible 2" (2000) pulled $57.8 million during the comparable weekend period.
But those pictures ran at lower prices and on fewer screens.
Big American action pictures tend to do very well abroad and on DVD, so "M:I:III" is unlikely to go down as a flop -- just as an indication that the Cruise franchise may be losing its traction.
Bear in mind, only about half of a film's revenue in theaters goes back to the studio to cover production and advertising expenses.
Running second locally is "RV," the Robin Williams comedy that is off a mere two percent, helped immeasurably by the fact it has no strong new competition for the family-entertainment dollar.
"United 93" drops from first place to third locally, down 41 percent in its second round.
No. 4 here is "Stick It," skidding an ominous 55 percent.
Fifth locally is the debut of "An American Haunting," a rare recent horror film to showcase two veterans, Sissy Spacek and Donald Sutherland. It's about the supernatural possession of a young woman in the 1880s.
"Akeelah and the Bee," which opened disappointingly April 28 despite uniformly enthusiastic reviews, held its own in its second week, fading just 11 percent.
It retains sixth spot on the local chart but will have trouble building on the relatively light returns of its first 10 days because it's showings per day will be reduced even at the theaters that hold it a third week.
"Hoot" premieres in seventh place with dismal returns. It's about teenagers in Florida trying to thwart the construction of a pancake house in an area occupied by owls. It's hardly a subject that keeps teens awake with worry.
"Silent Hill" takes eighth place locally, down 48 percent.
"The Sentinel" is ninth here, falling 45 percent.
"Ice Age: The Meltdown," the top earner of the year to date, occupies 10th place here with a 29 percent erosion in attendance.
"Poseidon," a remake of "The Poseidon Adventure," is the big gun opening Friday. It could elbow "M:I:III" out of the top spot.
"Poseidon" will go up against "Just My Luck" and at least three limited release pictures, "Art School Confidential," "Water" and "Midnight Movies: From the Margins to the Mainstream."
'Golda's Balcony' closes
In its second and final week at the Byham Theater, "Golda's Balcony," a one-woman play starring Valerie Harper, attracted 7,236 patrons for a gross of $319,354.
That's 70.4 percent of capacity, which is up from the opening round's 65 percent.
