Political interests trump race. That's the hard lesson likely 2008 presidential candidate Barack Obama will soon learn. Those who think black voters will automatically support one of their own need to think again. Recent history proves that point.
A survey in January 1996 showed that the so-called black president, Bill Clinton, nosed out Jesse Jackson and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in popularity among blacks. Eight years later, when Al Sharpton made his presidential foray in South Carolina's Democrat primary, he barely nudged out eventual nominee John Kerry among black voters. State and national black leaders put their muscle behind Sen. Kerry or John Edwards.
In the 2006 midterm elections, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, pro football great Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania and Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele -- all Republicans -- banked heavily on getting black voter support to beat their white Democrat opponents in state races. They failed miserably.
Blacks were enraptured with President Clinton and have supported white Democrats for good reason: They believed these seasoned politicians would deliver on their promise to fight for jobs, education and health care. And they either held office or were good bets to win. Interests and electability trumped color.
The same rules apply to Sen. Obama. Blacks may puff their chests with pride at the prospect of him breaking racial barriers but they'll still judge him on two crucial questions: Can he deliver on bread-and-butter issues⢠And can he win?
The second is critical. Many blacks are leery that he's a media-created flash in the pan and will wilt under the campaign's intense glare. Most black voters desperately want to end Republican White House rule. But that doesn't mean they'll support just any Democrat. It's got to be a Democrat with whom they feel comfortable.
In the eyes of many blacks, Obama departs from past black presidential contenders such as Shirley Chisholm, Carol Moseley Braun and Messrs. Jackson and Sharpton. They were readily identifiable, urban-bred blacks who spoke out boldly on civil rights, poverty and economic injustice. On the other hand, the racially mixed, Harvard-trained Obama, as the so-called "postracial" candidate, has soft-pedaled these issues. It's no accident that his appeal among whites seems stronger so far than among blacks.
Hillary Clinton and Edwards come much closer to fitting the bill. Many blacks applaud Edwards for being virtually the only top white Democrat to speak candidly about racial problems in the 2004 presidential race and for barnstorming the country afterward championing labor rights and demanding a new war on poverty. Sen. Clinton has a highly advantageous last name and husband, solid ties with black religious leaders and elected officials and is personally admired by many blacks. In combined USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in the past three months, Clinton had a 39-to-31 edge over Obama among black Democrats and independents.
And if Obama is judged on his record there won't be much to go on. Sure, his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention was a buzz-creating stem-winder. But since then, has he rammed any meaningful legislation through the Senate, delivered a visionary foreign policy statement or scored a diplomatic coup with a foreign leader?
The brutal truth is that Obama is too new on the political scene, too untested, too politically nice, too liberal, and most of all, he's black. That's just too many strikes for many blacks to seriously believe he has a real shot.
If Democrats made Obama their nominee, he'd face the GOP contender with a handicap of about 100 electoral votes. That's the tally of support he wouldn't get from Southern and border states. Such turf is still dominated by mostly white, conservative, male, pro-war, limited-government voters who are vehemently opposed to any political tilt to minorities and who are heavily influenced by ultra-conservative Bible Belt fundamentalism.
Obama certainly represents a fresh face on the political scene and has lots of room to grow and become adept on the issues. Still, a presidential race leaves no time for on-the-job candidate training.
Blacks want someone who can snatch back the White House from Republicans. And Obama isn't that someone.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson, a political analyst and social-issues commentator, is the author of "The Emerging Black GOP Majority."
