Hurricane Harvey could cost you at the pump

How much Hurricane Harvey will affect local gas prices depends mainly on where and how hard it hits the Gulf Coast, experts said Friday.

The projected path of the storm as it approached the Texas coast had it bypassing most of the natural gas and crude oil facilities, said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service.

Several major gasoline refineries remained in its path.

“It’s a gasoline event right now,” he said.

That would change if the hurricane veers toward Louisiana, he added.

“I do think you’re going to see the highest prices of the driving season next week,” Kloza said.

AAA projects a national increase of 5 cents to 15 cents per gallon over the Labor Day weekend, said AAA East Central spokesman Jim Garrity.

Gas prices typically rise that weekend because of increased demand. Harvey shutting down some refineries will add to that, but the relatively high supply of gasoline will probably mute the effect like it has all summer, he said.

“We have a very strong supply of gasoline right now,” he said.

The impact on Pennsylvania prices would be indirect since the region gets most of its gasoline from refineries in the East and West, said Donald Bowers, chairman of the Pennsylvania Petroleum Association’s Motor Fuels, Convenience Store and Truckstop Committee.

The Texas Gulf Coast contains about one-third of the United States’ refining capacity, according to the Energy Information Administration .

If Harvey shuts the Texas refineries for an extended period, southern companies will start coming north for gasoline and drive up prices here, he said. The wholesale market is already seeing some impact, he said.

“Over the last couple of days, the pricing has gone up about 8 cents a gallon,” Bowers said. That increase hasn’t shown up at the pump yet, he said.

“At this point, I don’t think (the impact) is going to be a whole lot in this area,” he said. “It just depends on how the thing hits.”

Offshore operators have evacuated 39 of the 737 manned platforms that produce oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico and have evacuated one of the 10 drilling rigs operating in the gulf, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement .

A 2013 analysis by the Energy Information Administration noted that the potential for a hurricane to disrupt oil and natural gas production has declined because the amount of the nation’s natural gas that comes from the gulf has declined from 26 percent in 1997 to 6 percent in 2012.

As of May , the gulf accounted for 3.6 percent of the country’s natural gas production. Pennsylvania accounted for 16.5 percent.

Like AAA, most analysts predict a jump of 5 cents to 15 cents per gallon nationally based on Harvey looking a lot like Hurricane Ike, which hit Texas in 2008.

“Ike sent prices up briefly,” Kloza said. “Ike did not knock out a significant amount of refinery production.”

Refineries in the path of the storm have shut down as a precaution. A controlled shutdown allows the plants to resume operations within a couple of days, while a sudden shutdown, such as from having the power knocked out, would stretch the recovery into weeks, Kloza said.

While the forecast doesn’t have the storm causing much damage to refineries, “The one thing to watch is the grid,” he said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that the slow-moving hurricane could stall over Texas and hit it with prolonged periods of torrential rainfall and severe flooding.

If the storm knocks out electrical power for weeks, that would prevent the refineries from restarting and lead to shortages in the market, he said. While that’s possible, “The odds are on our side,” Kloza said.

Brian Bowling is a Tribune-Review staff writer. Reach him at 724-850-1218, bbowling@tribweb.com or via Twitter @TribBrian.