Popular opinion suggests that if you miss your free throws, you miss out on a chance for a national championship.
The evidence suggests otherwise.
Of the past 10 national champions, only three shot better than 72 percent at the free-throw line, including Maryland in 2002 (72.5), Michigan State in 2000 (73.5) and Connecticut in 1999 (73.2).
The numbers don't lie: You can go to the Dance dressed shabbily and still come away with the prettiest girl.
"If the question is, 'Can you win in spite of poor foul shooting, the answer is yes," said ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, who played at Duke, which lost to Louisville in the national championship in 1986. "Does it make life much more difficult⢠Again, the answer is yes."
Duke won the NCAA title in 2001 despite hitting just 69.6 percent of its free throws. Kentucky won it in 1998 while converting only 67.5 percent. Arizona went the distance in 1997 in spite of a 65.5 percent success rate and Arkansas got it done in 1994 at a 68-percent clip.
Pitt fans should take note, because it seems that every time the second-ranked Panthers are the topic du jour, concerns about their free-throw shooting ring loud and clear.
Pitt (14-1) has a success rate of 61.4-percent at the free-throw line (204 for 332). That number is four percentage points below Arizona's mark in '97 and six behind Kentucky's in '98.
Senior forward Donatas Zavackas leads the Panthers with a 77.8-percent rate at the line (28 for 35), followed by junior guard Julius Page at 75 percent (30 for 40). Four of Pitt's top eight players are shooting below 60 percent at the free-throw line.
The Panthers, obviously, would like to elevate their team percentage, but they can at least take solace in the fact that previous NCAA titlists experienced shortcomings at the line.
"We don't sit around and worry about the numbers," Pitt coach Ben Howland said. "We believe that our guys will make the shots when they count. That's the type of team we have."
That might be true, but behind closed doors, you wonder if Howland is concerned with the free-throw shooting — especially that of senior point guard Brandin Knight, who has connected on only 17 of 41 attempts for a 41.5-percent success rate.
None of the past 10 national champions has had a point guard shoot as poorly as Knight from the line. The only guard who was remotely close to Knight's free-throw percentage was Wayne Turner of Kentucky in 1998, when he shot 62 percent.
Maryland's Juan Dixon was an 89.8-percent free-throw shooter in 2002, Jay Williams shot 65.9 percent for Duke a year earlier, Matean Cleaves shot 75.6 percent for Michigan State in 2000 and Khalid El-Amin hit 77.8 percent for Connecticut in 1999.
Only Turner, Williams and Cory Beck of Arkansas (66.7) in 1994 shot below 70 percent. Knight is nowhere close to those players, yet he remains somewhat upbeat.
"They're gonna fall for me," Knight said. "It's not even a concern of mine. My confidence is fine."
Howland has said time and again that Knight is a clutch player and that he has no worries about his star guard, but that's not how ESPN's Dick Vitale sees things.
Vitale was in town to broadcast the Pitt-Notre Dame game Jan. 6 and was disturbed with Knight's comportment when he approached the free-throw line.
"His body language was not positive," Vitale said of Knight, who was 0 of 6 from the line against the Fighting Irish. "He didn't want to go there. He strolled to the line. The confidence wasn't there. You'd like to get it into his head that he should be confident when he's up there, but confidence comes with success."
Vitale believes that if Knight continues at his current rate, he'll be targeted to be fouled in close games. That could be devastating during the NCAA Tournament, which is a one-and-done event.
"You can't hide him on the floor," Vitale said. "You will see crucial situations that the opposing team would put him on the line deliberately. It's something Pitt's going to have to deal with because he's going to be on the floor in a close game — he's too good to keep off of it."
Last season, Knight was a 44.2-percent free-throw shooter and Pitt's season ended with a 78-73 overtime loss to Kent State in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Knight did not attempt a free throw in that game; Pitt was 9 of 15 as a team.
For the season, the Panthers shot 60.5 percent (454 of 751), numbers that simply weren't good enough to enable them to advance deeper in the tournament.
"We know what we have to do," junior guard Julius Page said after the Panthers' 70-63 win over Rutgers on Jan. 12, when they hit 10 of 12 free throws in the closing minutes to seal the victory. "We've had some struggles in the past, but we don't think about that. We're experienced and we're not going to be tense when we're up there. We'll be all right."
Duke's Williams probably thought the same thing last season when the Blue Devils faced Indiana in the Sweet 16.
Williams had struggled with his free-throw shooting throughout 2001-02 — hitting at a 67.6-percent clip — and when the game was on the line, his Achilles' Heel came back to bite him.
He missed a free-throw attempt after making a 3-pointer with 4.2 seconds remaining and Duke absorbed a major upset (74-73) in a game it had no business losing. Fact is, Indiana knew it would be best to foul Williams, just like Pitt opponents know to foul Knight, with time ticking away.
"He's vulnerable right now," Bilas said of Knight, who, along with his teammates, did extra work on free-throw shooting during the offseason and during preseason practices. "You can foul him at the end of a game and it's essentially equivalent to a turnover ratio. It's a turnover. He's going to get you less than a point per possession at 40 percent from the line and that's a big deal.
"Everybody has an answer for why he doesn't make more — concentration, or his elbow is out, or he's not doing this and that. I don't think it's that simple. I think you can be a less than perfect shooter and still make free throws. It's not all technique. It has more to do with confidence. People say it's concentration, but that kid can concentrate. There's just some sort of block right now."
Because Pitt's been winning big this season, by an average of 21.3 points, they haven't been tested much at the free-throw line late in games, aside from the Rutgers contest. That will change as the competition heats up in the Big East and during the NCAA Tournament.
They might be able to survive hitting at a 65-percent rate at the line — as past history shows — but the team will need Knight to pick things up, sooner rather than later.
Vitale believes the talented guard will when he has to. Ditto for Bilas.
"He's mentally tough, a winner," Vitale said. "He just has to have one of those days when he goes 7 for 8 or 8 for 8 and gain his confidence. I think that will happen and I think he'll be fine."
"I suspect he'll get it done; he's too a good a player not to," Bilas said. "If he and the rest of the guys can get that area straightened out, I think Pitt can go a long way."
