Sales of new vehicles in the Pittsburgh area plunged by 31 percent during the first three months of 2009 compared to the same period last year, but a local trade group said the market appears to have hit bottom.
The Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association forecast in its latest Pittsburgh Auto Outlook report distributed Thursday that 99,159 new vehicles will be registered this year, 15.8 percent below the total for 2008. Year-over-year numbers should reach positive territory in the fourth quarter for the first time in almost two years, up by 6.2 percent, the report said.
Along with ongoing incentives to buy, increases nationwide in driver numbers and in numbers of cars being scrapped are signals that sales are about to start climbing again, said Clarence B. "Bud" Smail of Smail Auto Group in Greensburg.
"Our service departments have been busy," said Smail, who serves on the boards of the area dealers group and the National Auto Dealers Association.
"But at some point people are going to say, 'I've kept this car for six months or a year longer than I meant to. Now it's time to look at something new.'" Smail said his business's first quarter was slightly better than last year.
Pittsburgh-area sales for the most recent quarter are better than national sales, which fell nearly 40 percent — driving General Motors Corp. and Chrysler to the verge of bankruptcy. J.D. Power and Associates said yesterday that sales were down 33 percent for the first 16 days of April.
Domestic brand sales are projected to fall by 25.4 percent this year, for a 45.5 percent local market share. Japanese and European brands are expected to decline by lesser percentages, while sales of Korean brands are forecast to rise by 19.6 percent, capturing 11 percent of the market.
The Kia Sportage compact SUV, in fact, shot from 59th to fifth on the list of top local models, the association's report said.
Nationwide, the J.D. Power industry tracking service agreed sales are due to stabilize.
"We expect market conditions to slowly improve during the remainder of 2009, which will lead us back to a solid industry with improved long-term fundamental growth," said Jeff Schuster, the company's executive director of global forecasting.
