The workhorse running back is dead.
Time was, in the late 1980s and 1990s, almost every NFL team had an established No. 1 running back who would carry the ball 250-350 times and have a good shot at a 1,000-yard season as long as he didn't get hurt. In 1995, five players garnered at least 75% of their teams' carries. In 2009, only one did (St. Louis' Steven Jackson).
That makes those true No. 1 running backs - Adrian Peterson (Vikings), Chris Johnson (Titans), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) - even more valuable. But it also means that the expanding top tier of wide receivers is more important than ever.
In 2009, 15 running backs ran for 1,000 yards; 13 wide receivers and one tight end gained at least that many receiving yards. The top tier of players is not all that dissimilar. Running backs are still more valuable because they often add significant receiving yards to their totals, and they score more touchdowns.
But wide receivers have another factor in their favor - scarcity. The value in drop-off at running back from No. 5 (Steven Jackson) to No. 30 (C.J. Spiller) is significant (about 90 points). But at about 125 points, the drop off from the No. 1 wide receiver (Andre Johnson) to No. 30 (Braylon Edwards) is a chasm the size of Casey Hampton's refrigerator.
The world is changing - West Coast offenses and wide-open passing games make top receivers as important as all but the top running backs and worth of your mid-first-round picks.
