Strange ways of predicting the outcome of tomorrow's election
Pollsters be darned!
Halloween masks and 7-Eleven coffee sales might be just as accurate in predicting who'll be the nation's next president.
Events that seemingly have nothing to do with politics -- a football team and psychic pooches, for instance -- have proven to be successful foreshadowers of presidential elections.
One day remains before Election Day. Yet based on the following omens, it makes you wonder whether any last-minute campaigning by Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain will make a difference.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins' prediction power goes back to 1936. When the team wins its final home game before the general election, the incumbent party wins the election, according to Snopes.com, a Web site that researches urban legends. The streak ended in 2004, when the Skins lost and President George W. Bush was re-elected.
The Steelers play at the Redskins tonight. What's a Republican Steelers fan to do?
Halloween mask sales
The more people who buy a presidential candidate's mask, the greater the chance that candidate will win the election. Spirit Halloween political mask sales have matched the election outcome since 1996, while Buycostumes.com has foretold the winner in the past two.
"You can express yourself however you want to without people questioning (during Halloween)," said Heather Golin, Spirit Halloween's director of corporate communications. "With the election being such a hot topic, it's safe to say that that's why political masks are so popular."
Obama leads this year's mask sales by a wide margin, according to both retailers.
Weekly Reader kids vote
If kids went to the polls instead of adults, chances are good the election outcome wouldn't change -- at least according to the Weekly Reader kids magazine's student presidential election. In 12 of the past 13 elections, kids in kindergarten through 12th grade cast votes and successfully predicted the winner, according to the Weekly Reader's Web site. The only time the kids were wrong was 1992.
"All we can say is that kids are voting the way their parents are going to vote, and they are interested in the issues, so they are sort of thinking like adults are thinking," said Clara Colbert, Weekly Reader managing editor. "The kids took it very seriously."
This year, about 55 percent of students voted for Obama and 43 percent chose McCain. In Pennsylvania, 55 percent of kids voted for Obama.
7-Eleven coffee cup sales
Coffee drinkers know their Joe -- whether it's Joe the Plumber or Joe Six-pack. During the 2000 and '04 presidential elections, 7-Eleven sold Republican red and Democratic blue 20-ounce coffee cups with the candidates' names on them. Sales successfully predicted both election outcomes, according to 7-Eleven's Web site.
"It's remarkable. They were very, very close, within a few points," said Margaret Chabris, a 7-Eleven spokeswoman. "If we do it again this year, that would be kind of wild."
Obama cups are outselling McCain cups, 60 percent to 40 percent.
The stock market
Based on stock market data in the eight elections since 1972, a down market has predicted doom for the incumbent party, said Vashishta Bhaskar, an assistant professor of finance at Duquesne University.
If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party has won, he said.
"If the market is down, then it is believed that the future doesn't look good, and then the incumbent is in trouble," Bhaskar said. "In the times when they didn't win (and the market was up), there were extraneous events that were noneconomic."
For example, the Iran hostage situation when Jimmy Carter lost in 1980.
In October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 had their biggest monthly percentage drops since the crash in October 1987.
Psychic pooches
Sylvester Stallone's mom, Jacqueline, a self-proclaimed psychic, has successfully predicted the past two presidential elections. Stallone says her two miniature pinschers, Rachel and Hannah, send her messages telepathically. The dogs predicted a George Bush win in 2000 and '04, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Stallone's pooches haven't publicly made their prediction for tomorrow's election.
