A high-priced college may not be worth the price of admission.

As the economy forces more students out of the classroom and graduates into under- or unemployment, a college enrollment bubble may be starting to deflate.

As many as one-third of all private colleges surveyed by the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities said they expected enrollment to drop in the next academic year.

Almost 40 percent of those colleges said some of their students dropped out due to personal economic reasons and a quarter said full-time attendees switched to part time.

The job market is so awful that I have encountered several graduates this summer who weren't able to line up full-time employment, even though they had sound academic records. Some are even "taking the year off" or doing internships.

The most recent studies on earnings are vague and not very helpful for today's students and graduates. The Census Bureau "Education Attainment" study from 2007 tells you what you probably have heard for generations: A bachelor's degree will increase lifetime earnings.

Unfortunately, the government's numbers don't tell you about the economic handicap of repaying a six-figure college loan over decades or the resulting diminished ability to buy a house, car or comfortable lifestyle.

Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economist, said college-ranking information is "worthless" because it can't tell you if your investment in a higher-priced college will pay off over time.

"A huge investment is made on very little information," he says.

Kotlikoff says students should take into account reduced living standards -- by including loan repayments over time -- when they consider the total cost of college.

While community colleges still offer the best values, certain state universities are a close second.

There are some deals in four-year colleges. Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming state colleges all average less than $5,000 a year (for the 2008-2009 year) for in-state student tuition.

You could spend a lot more for an Ivy League college, of course. Harvard University and Yale University charge $33,696 and $36,500 respectively for tuition alone for the 2009-2010 year. Add in room and board, as well as other expenses, and you've cracked $50,000 a year.

Compare that with a national state-university tuition average of $6,762 and you know how much of a deal Wyoming is at $3,621. At the high end are New Jersey, $10,874; New Hampshire, $10,522; Vermont, $10,500; and Illinois, $10,353.

Keep in mind the figures don't include room and board, books or transportation expenses.

If you are planning ahead, an even more important number to watch is the rate of tuition increase, which has averaged 7.3 percent annually for state universities over the past half-decade.

An even simpler approach is to shop for a lower-priced college, search for grants and limit your debt as much as possible.

John F. Wasik is a Bloomberg News columnist.

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