Analysis: Why Pirates could — and should — trade for Chris Archer
At some point in mid-February, you may have done a Twitter search that read something like this: "Brassard, Penguins, trade."
If you did, the flames on your laptop may have just now been doused.
There were months of lead-up to that deal before it happened. Perhaps even more quickly, a search of "Archer, Pirates, trade" yields a similar result.
Pirates should make a real play for Chris Archer.
— Colin Dunlap (@colin_dunlap) July 23, 2018
THEE hottest team in baseball has extended there win streak to 10 in a row. Don't underestimate the Pittsburgh Pirates. Maybe the start they had was no fluke and they have figured it out. Lets go for it. Go get Chris archer.
— Robert (@rmckinney12) July 24, 2018
Chris Archer & Jose Alvarado for Austin Meadows, Trevor Williams, Luis Escobar and Max Kranick. Pirates have the OF depth to move Meadows. This will be unpopular, but Archer's years of control and salary are a steal. Meadows has huge value, won't have to add much else to pkg.
— Bucco's Wallet (@bThomWal23) July 24, 2018
I'm actually fine with the position players. They need pitching help like yesterday. I'd love it if they made a play for Chris Archer. The chance of this happening? Zero. $10 says they make no moves at the deadline.
— Ghost Of Tom Joad (@tomjoads_ghost) July 24, 2018
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer has seen his WHIP and ERA go up for three years in a row. His strikeout rate has dipped from 11.1 to 9.9 this year. And his walks per nine innings are up slightly from 2.7 to 2.9.
So, yes, Archer is trending in the wrong direction.
But he's just a year removed from an All-Star season in Tampa. He's only 29. He eats innings, having topped 200 in each of the last three years. That strikeout rate would put him in the top 10 of American League starters if his innings qualified. An abdominal strain caused him to miss about five weeks.
The most recent start for the right-hander was his best of the year. He struck out 13 without dishing a walk.
Similar to Brassard, this doesn't have to be a rental move. Archer is under contract for the next three seasons. He's slated to make $7.6 million in 2019, $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021. Even by Pittsburgh standards, that's not a lofty total for an established veteran pitcher.
As evidence, they willingly acquired Jon Niese with a price tag of roughly $9 million back in 2016. And they're paying Francisco Cervelli and Josh Harrison more than that.
Don't think the Pirates would be dumpster diving though. The Yankees are said to be interested in Archer's services, too.
It's become a recently popular refrain from Pirates fans to say that the team needs to reverse course on its thinking when it comes to holding onto prospects instead of using them as chips to acquire major league talent.
I'm on board with that. Given the Pirates' recent history of drafting and developing prospects, especially their alleged top picks, there is little evidence to suggest hoarding them like hunks of gold is worthwhile.
Often, the perceived blue-chippers haven't turned into what the Pirates hoped they would be. Tyler Glasnow, Luis Heredia, Alen Hanson and Stetson Allie leap to mind.
When some prospects, such as Gerrit Cole, pan out, the team decides they aren't worth keeping through arbitration.
So, yeah, sure. Deal some minor leaguers for Archer. Hearing names such as Nick Kingham, Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer and Will Craig going out the door in various packages doesn't scare me.
I'd draw the line at Austin Meadows. Regardless of how things go the rest of this season, I can't see the Pirates holding on to Corey Dickerson's arbitration contract for 2019. Plus, Meadows has showed us he belongs in the Major Leagues, even if a slump caused his demotion. Give him a full offseason knowing that he would be the team's everyday left fielder next April, and I bet he responds with a solid 2019.
If they give up Meadows and lose Dickerson, it'll be Jordan Luplow or some Major League cast-off next season who will be unlikely to replicate what Dickerson has done this year.
Mind you, I have zero ... zero ... expectation that the Pirates will make this trade happen or even fully investigate it. But hey, Neal Huntington put it out there. Despite our media "mockery" of the team allegedly talking about adding talent, he claims the Pirates are open to doing so.
Well, the Pirates could use a starting pitcher. And if this club keeps up the recent torrid pace, then someone needs to be added.
Archer wouldn't be a bad idea. Just don't give up Meadows to do it. If Huntington wants to see "mockery," wait until the deadline comes and goes if the Pirates are still contending, and the team does nothing to improve itself.
Then he'll see mockery.
