At the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, Nate Silver, a revered figure in data-based journalism and statistical projection models, got a rare crowd reaction when he answered a question from Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, his co-star in a one-on-one conversation, about the toughest sport to predict.
“I'm not sure that hockey is really that different than random,” said Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, an analytics-oriented arm of ESPN.
Many in the crowd laughed.
“The analytics are helpful,” Silver continued. “But not that helpful.”
If the Penguins put together a long playoff run, they'll help advanced hockey statistics' cause and counter the sport's reputation for random outcomes. Certain data, namely shot attempt and scoring chance differentials, suggested the likelihood of a Penguins surge up the standings well before March arrived.
It also hints the Penguins are Stanley Cup contenders who excel with strong, sustainable five-on-five team play rather than special teams quirks or streaky goaltending and shooting.
Of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams, the Penguins produced the best five-on-five shot attempt differential from Dec. 14, the date of coach Mike Sullivan's debut, to the end of the regular season. And it wasn't close: They more than doubled the next closest differentials in each category.
The New York Rangers, meanwhile, ranked eighth among the playoff squads, almost minus-160 behind the next closest team.
Research within the hockey community has revealed that an exceptional regular-season, five-on-five shot attempt differential, more than goals or wins, is the statistic that's the commonality among recent Stanley Cup champions. Each of the past three Stanley Cup Finals supported the idea: Chicago and Tampa Bay each ranked in the top four in the league in five-on-five shot attempt-for percentage last season; Los Angeles and the New York Rangers ranked first and eighth in 2014; and Chicago and Boston ranked fourth and third in 2013.
According to research done by Garret Hohl, chief technological officer of Hockey Data Inc. and manager of hockey-graphs.com, no other statistic differential — goal, hits, faceoff wins — correlates as well to playoff goal differential as shot attempts. Hits actually negatively correlate, disproving claims that teams who lean on brutality tend to win in the postseason.
Brian Macdonald, director of analytics for the Florida Panthers and one of the hockey community's most visible team-affiliated data advocates, watched the discussion between Silver and Morey in person. What led others in the crowd to chuckle brought him little in the way of amusement.
“I think it's definitely more difficult (to predict) than baseball and basketball, but I don't think that means that it's impossible to do,” Macdonald said of hockey. “I have a lot of respect for (Silver), first of all. … But I kind of have to respectfully disagree on some of what he said about hockey. I think it's a little further along than what he thinks.”
Data-based projections from Micah Blake McCurdy, a mathematician and one the hockey community's most respected data interpreters, listed the Penguins as a front-runner in the Eastern Conference.
A swarm of statistically inclined hockey writers online also tabbed the Penguins as a legitimate contender.
“You want to look at these things,” Macdonald said of the advanced data, “but you don't want to jump to conclusions and make wild conclusions based on one particular statistic. It's a combination of that, watching the games, and then there's some randomness involved. Wild bounces can happen. Crazy bounces off skates, deflections of legs can happen.”
Any discussion of data usually dies within seconds in the Penguins dressing room, where team members rarely want to delve into numbers.
Center Nick Bonino is a rare player who's willing to admit there's some value in analytical feedback, but even he questions whether the so-called “fancy stats” in hockey can identify a Stanley Cup contender any better than wins and losses.
“There's not really analytics in the playoffs for a hot goalie,” Bonino said. “Teams that win a lot have that, or a couple guys scoring in every game. It's tough to predict that. I think analytics maybe will give you an overview of who has a better chance than another team, but at the end of the day, really you make those playoffs, and then anything can happen.”
Bill West is a Tribune-Review staff writer. Reach him at wwest@tribweb.com or via Twitter @BWest_Trib.
