Starting Nine: Pirates have more pressing extension candidate than McCutchen

“Starting Nine” is a weekly feature composed of quick-hit thoughts and analysis on the Pirates and MLB.

1. While so much of the focus this week has centered on the idea of extending Andrew McCutchen's contract — McCutchen has three years remaining of club control, and three years is an eternity in baseball time — another member of the core is much closer to free agency: Francisco Cervelli, in his last year of team control.

2. While some scoffed at Cervelli seeking a three-year, $39 million contract extension, according to a Tribune-Review report last month, if one buys in to the new-age catching metrics like pitch framing (as the Pirates do) Cervelli actually was the club's MVP last season.

3. Unlike the Wins Above Replacement formulas used by Fangraphs.com and Baseball Reference, pitch framing is taken into account with Baseball Prospectus' version of WAR — Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) — and Cervelli led the Pirates with 5.7 WARP last year. Yes, Cervelli was more valuable than McCutchen and Gerrit Cole. Another pitch-framing wizard, Russell Martin, finished second on the club in WARP (5.2) behind McCutchen (6.1) in the 2014 season.

4. If Cervelli hits the open market after another quality season, three years and $39 million will represent a bargain. He could be in line for a Martin-like deal.

5. With the Pirates extending Chris Stewart and having Elias Diaz on the cusp of the major leagues, a lucrative extension seems unlikely for Cervelli. But Diaz could become a trade chip if Cervelli was extended, and a three-year extension to Cervelli would allow Cervelli to help break in a number of young pitchers in the pipeline. Cervelli could be an ideal bridge to the organization's top catching prospect, an elite defensive prospect, Reese McGuire.

6. Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, its projections system, PECOTA, projects Pirates prospect Tyler Glasnow as the only top pitching prospect to produce above-average results as a major-league starter this season.

In a small sample — five starts — PECOTA projects Glasnow will produce a 3.46 ERA, 3.24 FIP and 1.19 WHIP as a rookie to go along with a sterling 9.9 strikeout rate. If those numbers can be extrapolated over the second half of the season, the Pirates will have an impact rookie pitcher not unlike Gerrit Cole in 2013, only with more command issues and more ability to miss bats.

The Pirates need Glasnow to be something like PECOTA projects in 2016 to bolster what appears to be a lackluster back of the rotation. By the second half, Glasnow could be the team's No. 3 starter.

7. Regarding the back of the rotation and the Pirates' offseason moves there, Fangraphs.com gave the Pirates' offseason a C-minus grade and ranked the Pirates as having the 25th-best offseason last week.

Wrote Fangraphs.com editor Dave Cameron: “For a team trying to not waste Andrew McCutchen‘s peak, adding John Jaso, Jon Niese, Neftali Feliz, and Ryan Vogelsong is a pretty underwhelming plan. This is still a very good roster, but the back half of the rotation is a potential land mine that could sink the team's season, and while trusting Ray Searage has worked out well for the organization, believing that your pitching coach is a wizard is a risky proposition.”

8. Fangraphs.com's top offseason belongs to the Cubs, and the grade didn't include Chicago's signing of Dexter Fowler on Thursday. That ranking is a problem for NL Central contenders. Fowler ostensibly will return to center field, shifting Jason Heyward to right — where he is an elite defender — and placing Jorge Soler on the bench to give the Cubs rare depth.

9. While no one wants the game bogged down by an assortment of rules changes, the changes regarding the sliding rules (making illegal the type of blocking slide that wiped out Jordy Mercer) and making slides around second base reviewable are sensible changes. Keeping players healthy should be paramount.

Travis Sawchik is a staff writer for Trib Total Media. Reach him at tsawchik@tribweb.com or via Twitter @Sawchik_Trib.